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The actual risk wasn't too high. The flooding out back isn't from a river concentrating the rainfll from a large catchment area; rather it is because the fields are waterlogged and the small drainage ditch that runs through them is full. As such, rainwater was just pooling in what was really a huge but very shallow puddle, and for it to rise another six inches would have taken an awful lot more rain on top of what we'd already had (Six inches would have had to flood several extra hectares too, we are that flat around here). The forecast was pretty definite that we weren't going to get that. Faced with waiting for a flood that was unlikely to happen and about which we had done about as much as we could, and going and enjoying ourselves at a gaming con, we took the latter option.
MC